Ladies and gentlemen, place your bets. Is Brexit a winner or a loser? What are the odds on the UK economy being a success after leaving the EU and what are the ‘tipsters’ saying? To guide your instinct we provide the following review of some of the leading economists’ guesses. So what are economists forecasting … More Betting on Brexit?
Lord Heseltine, former Deputy Prime Minister and fanatical Remainer, says of Brexit (Daily Telegraph, 20 June 2017): “… the younger generation [is] bemused that an older generation could wilfully undermine their future.” His comment isn’t really about youth at all, it’s an indirect assertion that Britain will be much poorer outside the EU. This is … More Are EU serving the young?
Exactly 365 days after the Referendum decision to leave the European Union the Prime Minister offered to let EU immigrants who’ve been in the UK for five years remain and enjoy all the rights of British citizens. Apparently that’s not good enough, according to Jean-Claude Junker, however, it’s infinitely better than the EU’s offer to British … More Anniversary Thoughts
Following the disaster at Grenfell Tower in Kensington, Dr Richard North has two recent posts (18 and 19 June) in his blog, EUReferendum.com, which discuss how responsibility should be allocated between national and international governments (he does not bring local government into his discussion). He is thorough in his analysis and cautious in his conclusions. … More Regime Standards
Much ink is being spilt over the outcome of the UK general election; we expect this to continue for some time yet, at least until (or if) some semblance of order is restored. In this post we focus on some possible consequences for Brexit. The Economist has been a fervent opponent of Brexit since last … More Storm Before the Calm?
Some important features of nation states are still missing from the EU, including defence, police and intelligence. At present these remain divided in the hands of individual member states, with the exception of defence, which is broadly covered in Europe by NATO. Despite the strong reservations of some member states, including the UK and Poland, … More Ever Closer Defence
In our immediate response to the UK election result (see The ‘Brexit Election’) we said we would have to see how the situation developed before we could know how the Brexit process might be affected. That’s still true but the compromises required to form a government are becoming clearer and mean the middle ground between … More Election – second thoughts
In the end the UK election was not just about Brexit; like other recent votes in Western countries it seemed to have a lot to do with rebellion against what people know but believe isn’t working for them. Blame for a ‘chaos’ result is being widely attributed to Mrs May’s presidential approach by making the election … More The ‘Brexit Election’
On May 10 Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), addressed the Netherlands Parliament in Den Hague. He opens with some boiler-plate puff: “This year, we celebrate the 60th and 25th anniversaries of the Treaties of Rome and Maastricht. Despite the many challenges that we face as Europeans, we should never forget the significant … More A Draghi on Reform?
Guy Verhofstadt* is among the most vociferous supporters of the EU and strongly favours ever closer union towards a federal European government as the solution to its present persistent problems. Writing in the New York Times on May 16, he is enthusiastic about the implications of Emmanuel Macron’s substantial victory in the French presidential election. … More View from the parapet