EU in Crisis?

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36381019

The recent BBC news article by Becky Branford highlights the question we have been asking: does the EU have a secure future? The answer to this question is not as obvious as is being assumed by Remain supporters, who do not doubt the continuing existence of the EU and assume that whatever benefits Britain may have received from membership will be retained.

The article quotes from the Financial Stability Review, published by the European Central Bank (ECB). “Political risks have increased across the euro area and pose a challenge to fiscal and structural reform implementation and, by extension, to public debt sustainability.” This is a stark warning from within the heart of the regime.

The Review continues, “This, in turn, may cause renewed pressure on more vulnerable sovereigns and potentially contribute to contagion and re-fragmentation in the euro area“. Another word for ‘re-fragmentation’ is ‘break-up’.

Political risks are associated with the rise of populist parties, of both left and right, which are attracting growing support in many EU countries, as illustrated here:

Political Risk Ratings.png

There are indications that economically weaker, southern countries are experiencing growing left-wing populism while stronger, northern countries are seeing more right-wing populism. Both centre on opposition to EU policies; austerity in the south and immigration in the north. If this trend continues, which seems likely, and political support is sucked from the centre towards the Euro-sceptic wings, then the future of the EU will be less secure than is uncritically assumed by those who wish to remain in its once-comfortable embrace.

Protesters in France

Unless this assumption is challenged and the possibility of break-up is factored into political and economic arguments, Britons may face a future far bleaker than the uncertainties of ‘going it alone’ as Brexit is sometimes misleadingly described.

Even if you accept the isolationist implications of ‘going it alone’, which we don’t, this prospect may be better than the alternative, ‘asleep in the dark’.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s