The Remain campaign deliberately misuses words to enhance our fears. Fear, uncertainty and doubt have powerful short-term effects so markets behave unpredictably and irrationally at first. In the longer term things become clearer and markets start to behave rationally. Just as the 3 million jobs “linked” to our trade with the EU is meant to … More Access to the Single Market
Sadly, we can be sure that whichever side loses in the UK referendum we will be bombarded with complaints that the process was unfair. Of course, the shockingly low quality of the (mostly mis-) information spewed out by both campaigns gives some weight to complaints of unfairness. However, the victims are and will be the … More Vote Swingers
Week beginning June 5th, 2016 The moral maze David Cameron says Leavers are “quitters”, “little Englanders” and do not love Britain. Like many in the Remain camp he mistakes the heap he’s standing on for the moral high ground, but that’s not how it smells. Voter registration “glitch” Following the computer glitch that prevented some … More That Was The Week That Was
The ambitious goals stated by EU leaders are scarcely matched by the achievements. Given the severe, concurrent crises in the Union at present there must be a strong chance that the EU will break apart or radically change in ways, and with consequences, we can’t predict. Why do supporters of the EU not factor this … More Risks & Uncertainties
EU supporters tend to take the unlimited continuation of the project for granted, neglecting to take account of the risks it faces and the assumptions on which it is based. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36381019 The recent BBC news article by Becky Branford highlights the question we have been asking: does the EU have a secure future? The answer … More EU in Crisis?
Economic forecasts depend on a chosen selection of past data and future assumptions; these choices are likely to be strongly influenced by the desired outcome. The Remain case is mostly economic, based on the fear of negative impacts if we Leave. The forecasts on which the fears are based rely on negative assumptions and so … More Economics and Emotions
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35160080 In an article (1 Jan 2016) by their chief correspondent, Gavin Hewitt, the BBC described 2015 as ” … the year when crises came in waves pounding the shoreline and prompting leaders and officials to fret over the future of the European project.” The focus of the article is migration and the EU’s inability … More Is breaking-up so hard to do?
http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/674092/Eurozone-Spain-meltdown-shares-plummet-EU-Spanish-banks In another Express article (May 27) the rattling of investor confidence in Spanish banks is linked to similar recent experiences in Italy and Germany. Low, indeed negative, interest rates are cited as responsible for a rash of selling of bank shares by investors. What has this to do with the EU? Well, we’re not … More Spanish Bear, or Bull
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/673022/Brexit-EU-European-Union-end-of-Europe-left-wing On May 26 the online edition of the Daily Express had an excitable headline: “END OF EU”. The article claims that “thousands of left-wing voters” are hoping that Britain will leave the EU and start the break-up. They cite “… political activists from Greece, Catalonia and Ireland [who] spoke of a growing movement from … More Left. Out! Right?
In June 2015 the presidents of the five major divisions of the European Union, led by Jean-Claude Juncker, the President of the European Commission, published their report, titled Completing Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union. “This report has been prepared by the President of the European Commission, in close cooperation with the President of the Euro … More Five Presidents Report (Part 1)
This EU Won't Work 