A rosy view of the future of the EU from the Economist, with counter arguments from us. Will demands for referendums to leave the EU spread? Is the EU reformable? Is the push towards greater integration reversing or simply slowing? These questions are briefly covered in this post.
An excellent, if sobering, article from the international business editor of the Daily Telegraph. His reasons for voting Leave are balanced with a clear outline of the risks involved.
Will Britain be worse off and, if so, for how long if we leave the EU. Despite the fears wound up by the Remain campaign and David Cameron, among others, we don’t truly know. Experts build into their models the assumptions that give them the outcome they wish to predict. They don’t declare their assumptions so we can’t tell if their models are any good.
Sadly, we can be sure that whichever side loses in the UK referendum we will be bombarded with complaints that the process was unfair.
A dismal slanging match from on high. Euroscepticism across Europe is high and growing. This seriously weakens the case to Remain but is not being addressed.
The EU is characterised by overweening ambition and underwhelming achievement. The combination presents a risk to Britain if we remain in the EU.
As we get closer to the vote, both economics and politics are wobbling and the risks and uncertainties of staying in the EU are becoming increasingly evident.
Economics is one of two major issues that may decide the outcome of the Brexit referendum (the other is immigration). Arguments from both sides are weakly based on unspecified and unsubstantiated assumptions. As a result the referendum may be decided more on impressions and emotions than on honestly reasoned projections.
This post links to a recent article in the Express, which points up the uncertainties that the Remain case chooses to ignore.
The EU’s attempts to resolve the migration crisis have yielded little so far, except a dirty deal with Turkey, which may or may not happen. This crisis will continue.
The first signs of disruption may be evident in the rise of far-right parties in several European countries. There is also much euro-scepticism in the centre of politics.
The original motivation for setting up the EU is no longer pressing. Now it is believed that economic, political and social development can only be achieved from the top down. In the longer term the EU may collapse under the weight of its internal inconsistencies.
“Forecasts are almost always wrong, we should take them with a pinch of salt.” This section discusses the limitations, uses and abuses of economic models. It also provides some excellent links to articles that explain this clearly and simply.